Twelve simple questions that predict which households are most likely to migrate, for smarter development decisions
The Migration Propensity Index (MPI) provides freely available methodology, questionnaires, and scoring tools to estimate the likelihood of household migration within the next 12 to 24 months. It combines two complementary indices: the internal MPI (i-MPI), which anticipates domestic migration, and the external MPI (e-MPI), which anticipates cross-border migration. Each index uses 12 to 15 simple, non-sensitive questions about observable household characteristics, including demographics, dwelling conditions, assets, and previous migration events. Responses are scored to estimate migration probability and classify households into low, medium, or high migration propensity groups. The questionnaire takes a few minutes and can be administered in person, by phone, or integrated into an existing survey. For organizations providing survey, data analysis, or targeting services, the MPI can support household-level assessment and geographic mapping. Both indices demonstrated predictive power in out-of-sample validation in Honduras.