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Twelve simple questions that predict which households are most likely to migrate, for smarter development decisions The Migration Propensity Index (MPI) is a decision-support tool that estimates the likelihood of household migration within the next 12 to 24 months. It combines two complementary indices: the internal MPI (i-MPI), which anticipates domestic migration, and the external MPI (e-MPI), which anticipates cross-border migration. Each index uses 12 to 15 simple, non-sensitive questions on observable household characteristics to generate a score from 0 to 100 and classify households by migration propensity. The results can support the targeting of public programmes. The MPI can also be used to inform geographic prioritization for development programmes. In Honduras, validation over 24 months found that 19.6% of households classified as having high internal migration propensity experienced migration, compared with 3.5% of those classified as low propensity.